Perceptions of information chaos in Baltic states and Central Europe

PERCEPTIONS OF INFORMATION CHAOS IN BALTIC STATES AND CENTRAL EUROPE 2023

METHODOLOGYOF RESEARCH Method of Data Target Group Collection A representative sample of the populations of Data collection was conducted the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, online using a structured Poland, Austria, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. questionnaire. Total n = 8000 1000 respondents in each country Quota selection by gender, age (18-65 years) and education. Data Collection Contacts Period Data collection was realized from Michal Kormaňák September 2 to September 15, Account Director Ipsos 2022. Public Affairs [email protected] GSM: +420 739 472 302 2

POPULATION INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT 3

MEDIATRUSTWORTHY Population of Baltic countries more likely to trust traditional media (news online portal, print media and public media) than V4 and Austria inhabitants. Lithuanians are less likely to trust to conversation with family members and also with neighbours, friends or work colleagues. V4 + AT EE LT LV Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary (V4) + Austria Conversations with family members 80% 85% 74 % 83 % Newsonlineportals 65% 78% 70 % 69 % Conversations with neighbours, friends 67% 69% 55 % 66 % ✓ In general, people with lower andworkcolleagues educationare less likely to trust Print media 61% 76% 68 % 62 % public media, print media, Public media 56% 71% 66 % 62 % commercial TV, News online portals, private radio stations. On the other Private radio stations 58% 60% 62 % 49 % hand, they more often trust social CommercialTV 56% 61% 60 % 45 % mediasuch as Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, Telegram, VKontakte. YouTube 47% 43% 52 % 55 % ✓ Young people (18 – 34 years) are Facebook 38% 38% 49 % 48 % more likely to trust social media than Instagram 32% 30% 34 % 36 % other age groups. WhatsApp 31% 22% 26 % 51 % ✓ The oldest group of population (55 – 65 years) prefers more frequent Twitter 30% 26% 29 % 34 % conversation with family members. Telegram 24% 24% 31 % 36 % ✓ Public, printed media and news on Chain emails 15% 11% 24 % 21 % online portals are considered more TikTok 20% 16% 26 % 26 % trustworthy by university educated people. VKontakte 16% 13% 17 % 15 % Question: Q3.Whichofthefollowing sources of information and media do you consider authoritative? Base: n=1000 per country Note: T2B displayed: (Very trustworthy + Rather trustworthy). 4 Higher/Lower than average of V4 + AT

INFORMATION DISORDERS 5

CAMPAIGNS AIMED AT IMPROVING MEDIA LITERACY AND UNDERSTANDING OF MEDIA Estonians, Latvians and Lithuanians more often notice campaigns that are aimed to improve media literacy. EE LT LV V4 + AT Campaigns aimed at improving media 28% 40% 35% 41% literacy and understanding of media have ever noticed… 6% 6% ✓ Younger people up to 34 years 7% 8% old are more likely to notice at Yes, I actively least some campaigns and even searched for this 20% actively search for them. campaign 33% 27% 36% Yes, I noticed any ✓ People with university degree campaign notice campaigns more often than others but they actively search for them as same as No other. 61% 43% 48% 45% ✓ The same applies for people with Do not know high net personal income. 12% 17% 18% 14% Question: Q20. Have you ever noticed campaigns aimed at improving media literacy and understanding of media? Base: n=1000 per country Note: Higher/Lower than average of all countries 6

EXPOSURE TO MISINFORMATION IN THE MEDIA Latvians have the lowest perceived exposure to disinformation of all surveyed countries. By contrast, Lithuanians have second highest perceived exposure to disinformation only after Hungarians. V4 + AT Baltic States CZ SK PO HU AT EE LT LV Scale from 1 to 7: ✓ People with university degree I'm exposed to 20% 25% 17% say that they are more exposed disinformation (1-2) 27% 30% 29% 35% to disinformation. 49% ✓ Every 10thperson with basic (3-5) education think they are not exposed to disinformation at all. 55% ✓ Over 20% of people with low 63% 60% net personal income say that I'm not exposed to them at 59% 58% 57% they are heavily exposed to all (6-7) 57% disinformation. 43% I don't know 26% 11% 11% 11% 7% 15% 13% 7% 3% 2% 3% 1% 1% 3% 1% 2% Question: Q6. To what extent do you think you are exposed to disinformation (i.e. false information spread on purpose) in the media? Base: n=1000 per country 7

STEPS TAKEN AGAINST DISINFORMATION Citizens of Baltic states are more pro-active in terms of actions taken against disinformation. But also, there is part of the population that more often say they do not do anything when encountered with disinformation on social media. EE LT LV V4 + AT I will alert those around me that 44% 47% 51% 51% this is disinformation ✓ Womensay more often that they will alert surroundings about I will block the person whoposted or shared the disinformation. disinformation 32% 38% 37% 41% ✓ Over third of people up to 34 years old say that they will I will report the disinformation post to report disinformation post to the the social network operator to have it removed 27% 23% 29% 23% social network operator. ✓ People with university degree I don´t use social media 17% 10% 6% 6% are more active with steps taken against disinformation. Noneoftheabove 8% 16% 11% 12% Question: Q8. Which of the following steps will you take if you read disinformation on social media? Base: n=1000 per country Note: Higher/Lower than average of V4 + AT 8

MEDIA REPORTS BASED ON VERIFIED FACTS People in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are less likely to notice that media reports are based on verified facts. Only one in four Estonians notice this at least often. EE LT LV V4 + AT Notice often or very often that 39% 25% 31% 31% media reports are based on verified facts 9% 4% 4% 5% Very often ✓ Menmore often notice that 21% 27% 26% media reports are based on Often 30% verified facts. Sometimes ✓ Over 10% of people up to 24 45% years old later say that 43% 46% they very often notice the Rarely 40% media reports are based on verified facts. Not at all 20% 18% 16% I don't know 13% 3% 5% 3% 4% 5% 5% 4% 4% Question: Q10. How often do you notice that media reports are based on facts that are verified and complete? Base: n=1000 per country Note: Higher/Lower than average of all countries 9

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS OF DISINFORMATION PROBLEM Almost half of the populations of Estonia and Lithuania think that foreign actors have significantly contributed to the problem of disinformation. In comparison, Latvians are underestimating the contribution of all factors. EE LT LV V4 + AT Highhumancredulity 56% 38% 56% 46% The way politicians argue in the public space 48% 43% 45% 32% ✓ People with higher education are more likely to agree that all the factors examined contribute Conspiracy theorists and supporters of conspiracy theories 48% 47% 52% 38% to disinformation. Government policy on disinformation 45% 33% 43% 34% ✓ Older people tend to view High The way news is consumed by ordinary people 44% 46% 40% 37% human credulity as greater problemthan younger Algorithms of social media platforms 41% 44% 44% 36% generations. Lobbying by national and multinational corporations 41% 39% 47% 38% ✓ Also, older people are more likely to agree that Foreign actors are Identification with the content of specific disinformation 41% 43% 40% 32% important contributing factor. Foreign actors (e.g. foreign states and their propaganda) 39% 46% 52% 39% Traditional mainstream media coverage 37% 37% 37% 31% Question: Q7. People point to various causes of the problem of disinformation(i.e. false information spread on purpose). To what extent do you think the following factors have contributed to the problem of disinformation: Base: n=1000 per country 10 Note: Higher/Lower than average of V4 + AT; Displayed as T2B (sum of answers “1 - Contributed very significantly” and “2”)

CONSEQUENCES OF DISINFORMATION A rather large difference exists between individual Baltic states. Estonians have a very similar proportion of answers to the mean of V4 and Austria. Lithuanians are more worried about consequences of disinformation. By contrast, Latvians are less likely to worry about disinformation. EE LT LV V4 + AT They deepen distrust in the news media and journalism. 55% 58% 63% 51% They threaten the functioning of democracy and democratic 54% 55% 61% 48% institutions (e.g. reduce confidence in the fairness of elections). They strengthen distrust in politics and politicians. 54% 53% 60% 50% ✓ Older people are more worried They offer false/incomplete simple explanations of difficult concepts. 52% 51% 56% 40% about effects of disinformation on They take advantage of everyone's general conspiracy mentality. 51% 44% 55% 36% trust of science and scientific authority. They blur the boundaries between the aggressor and the attacked, as 50% 54% 56% 44% in the case of the war in Ukraine. ✓ People with elementary Deepening health crises such as the COVID-19 epidemic/pandemic. 50% 48% 55% 42% education less often agree on They increase distrust of science and scientific authority. 49% 50% 54% 42% impacts of these factors. Threaten the health of the population (e.g. increase reluctance to 49% 49% 55% 44% ✓ Across all answers, there are no vaccinate). They lock individuals into opinion bubbles. 47% 51% 59% 41% or almost no distinctions in Disagreements within families are escalating, with some topics of answers of people with different discussion becoming taboo. 45% 42% 45% 32% net personal income. They increase everyone's sense of information overload. 45% 45% 51% 40% They weaken the functioning of state institutions such as the 42% 44% 54% 40% government or ministries. Reduce the number of topics for conversations with friends and 34% 30% 37% 28% colleagues at work. Question: Q19. People point to various consequences of the problem of disinformation (i.e. false information spread on purpose). To what extent do you think disinformation contributes to the following impacts: Base: n=1000 per country 11 Note: Higher/Lower than average of all countries; Displayed as T2B (sum of answers “1 – I definitely agree” and “2”)

PREVENTIVE TOOLS AGAINST FALSE AND MANIPULATIVE INFORMATION Estonians and Lithuanians are more likely to agree that all the tools examined are effective against disinformation. By contrast, Latvians are more pessimistic about preventive tools. EE LT LV V4 + AT Responsible behaviourof social network users and not forwarding 50% 54% 52% 44% information that is not verified ✓ Femalestend to see these Removal of harmful content (e.g. disinformation) by the operators of tools as effective. platforms (Google, YouTube, Facebook, etc.) 49% 53% 54% 43% ✓ In the same manner, people on which such content occurs with university degree more often agree with Creation and support of fact-checking platforms or fact-checking effectiveness of these tools. journalism, which bring disinformation to the truth 46% 51% 53% 40% Strengthening the media skills of different population groups 46% 59% 52% 41% (from children to their parents to the elderly) Blocking of websites and platforms dominated by disinformation content 41% 52% 49% 40% by the state and state authorities Question: Q13. To what extent do you agree that each tool is effective? Base n=1000 per country. Note: Higher/Lower than average of all countries 12

CHAIN EMAILS 13

REACTION TO MASS FORWARDED EMAILS Only a quarter of Estonia's population receives chain emails compared to 40% of Lithuania‘s and Latvia‘s populations. However, only one in ten citizens in these two countries forwards these emails to their friends. EE LT LV V4 + AT I get these chain emails and 2% 2% 3% 3% reach out to the sender 8% 7% 10% 9% directly to engage on the topic 12% 21% ✓ Menare more likely to I get these chain emails and 25% 23% received chain emails and usually forward them on to my even forward them on their friends friends. I get these chain emails and usually don't forward them on ✓ People with basic to my friends education more often 76% forward chain emails. I don't get those chain emails 67% 59% 61% ✓ People with middle income I don't know (no answer) are more likely to get these emails. 2% 2% 3% 4% Question: Q11.Doyoureceivemassforwardedemails from your friends warning of dangers? If so, how do you most often react? Base: n=1000 per country 14

CONTENTS OF CHAIN EMAILS Estonians and Lithuanians, who received chain emails, more frequently reported that the main topic of these emails was support for Ukraine in the ongoing war with Russia. Most emails, however, were related to COVID-19. EE LT LV V4 + AT COVID-19epidemic/pandemic 46% 44% 43% 47% Criticism of the government and Prime Minister 36% 25% 24% 20% over various issues ✓ Malesare more likely receive Criticism of the European Union over various issues 29% 27% 25% 20% emails with theme of criticism of EU, NATO and support for Migration crisis 25% 21% 18% 11% Vladimir Putin. Criticism of Ukraine or Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky 23% 22% 20% 16% ✓ Femalemore often get emails during the war in Ukraine Criticism of Russia or Russian President Vladimir Putin 21% 20% 20% 16% about COVID-19. during the war in Ukraine Supportfor Ukraine or Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky 21% 28% 28% 25% ✓ People over 55 more often during the war in Ukraine receive emails about criticism of Supportfor Russia or Russian President Vladimir Putin in the war in Ukraine 18% 20% 14% 11% their government and PM. Criticism of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation on various issues 16% 14% 13% 11% ✓ Emails for younger people are more focusedon conflict on I don't know (no answer) 5% 5% 4% 7% Ukraine. Other 4% 4% 4% 5% Question: Q11b. What are the main topics of the chain emails you have received recently? Base: n=2506 (people that have received a chain email) Note: Higher/Lower than average of all countries 15

CURRENT DISINFORMATION NARRATIVES 16

CREDIBILITY OF DISINFORMATION REPORTS The used example of disinformation about liquefied natural gas. Question: Q12. To what extent do you find the following reports unbelievable or, on the contrary, credible? Base: n=1000 per country 17

CREDIBILITY OF DISINFORMATION REPORTS Latvians are more prone to say that this particular report about the US exporting exporting liquefied natural gas from Russia to Europe during sanction regime is believable than mean of values of V4 countries and Austria. EE LT LV V4 + AT T2B 36% 37% 36% 43% 8% 6% 10% 12% ✓ People over 45 years old Very believable tend to find this report less 28% 31% 26% believable. However Rather believable 32% younger people up to 34 years old says more often that this report is believable. Rather unbelievable ✓ Similarly, inhabitants from 34% 36% 34% place of residence up to 32% 1.000 inhabitants are more Very unbelievable likely to say this report is 17% 14% 18% believable. I don´t know 12% 13% 12% 13% 12% Question: Q12. To what extent do you find the following reports unbelievable or, on the contrary, credible? Base: n=1000 per country Note: Higher/Lower than average of V4 + AT; T2B (sum of answers “Very believable” and “Rather believable”) 18

CREDIBILITY OF DISINFORMATION REPORTS The used example of disinformation about Glastonbury festival. Question: Q12. To what extent do you find the following reports unbelievable or, on the contrary, credible? Base: n=1000 per country 19

CREDIBILITY OF DISINFORMATION REPORTS When the report is supplied with visual content, people seem to find the message more credible. However, Estonians and Lithuanians are less likely to say that this report is believable than other countries even then. EE LT LV V4 + AT T2B 57% 51% 46% 60% Very believable 16% 13% 14% 20% ✓ People who trust in public media are more likely to believe this report. Rather believable 39% 33% ✓ Citizens with advanced 40% digital skills find this report 40% unbelievable more often Rather unbelievable than others. 27% 30% Very unbelievable 25% 21% I don´t know 10% 12% 12% 10% 9% 9% 11% 9% Question: Q12. To what extent do you find the following reports unbelievable or, on the contrary, credible? Base: n=1000 per country Note: Higher/Lower than average of V4 + AT ; T2B (sum of answers “Very believable” and “Rather believable”) 20

SUMMARY 21

SUMMARY: OUTLYING LATVIA Estonia and Lithuanian share overall similar view on disinformation and information 01 chaos. However, Latvia distinguishes itself from other Baltic countries on several key levels. Latvians trust new media, especially social media, more than other Baltic nations. 02 They are skeptical about disinformation and less likely to report exposure or identify contributing factors and consequences. Additionally, they have less confidence in preventive tools to combat disinformation compared to Estonia and Lithuania. On the other hand, Latvians are more prone to believe tested disinformation reports 03 even more than mean of V4 countries and Austria. Overall, Latvians seem be to disinterested with disinformation and rather passive in comparison to Estonians and Lithuanians. 22

SUMMARY: VISUAL CONTENT AND DISINFORMATION When testing the credibility of several current disinformation reports, those that are 01 supported by visual content (misassigned picture) have higher credibility scores than those that contain only text. It seems that the inclusion of visual content can enhance the perceived credibility of 02 misinformation (or information). As deepfakes technology is rapidly evolving, this finding may be one of the major challenges of the near future or even present. 23

SUMMARY: CHAIN MAILS CONTRAOFFENSIVE Chain mails are typical pro-Kremlin propaganda tool in Central and Eastern Europe. 01 Nevertheless, Estonians and Lithuanians who received chain emails are more likely than others to report that the main topic of these emails is NOT a support for Russia but for Ukraine during the war in Ukraine. This fact suggests that there may be some kind of succesful counter-offensive email 02 campaign against Russian propaganda in these countries as their population say moreoftenthat contributing factor of disinformation are foreign actors. 24

CONTACTS 25

CONTACTS Michal Kormaňák Account Director Ipsos Public Affairs [email protected] GSM: +420 739 472 302 26